NEWS
China Copper Market Analysis & News
China Copper Market: Consumption, Major Customers, and Key Trends (as of 2025–2026)
China remains the undisputed leader in the global copper market, accounting for approximately 55–60% of worldwide refined copper consumption. The country is both the largest producer of refined copper and the top importer of copper concentrates and ore, making its demand dynamics a critical driver of global prices.
Consumption Volume
2025: Refined copper production reached 13.32 million tons (Jan–Nov, +9.8% y/y). Apparent consumption estimates vary: around 12.88–15 million tons (some sources cite ~17 million tons including secondary copper)
13.56 million tons, growing at a CAGR of 5.28% to reach 17.54 million tons by 2031 (Mordor Intelligence).
2026 forecast
Growth in 2025 was moderate (3–5% range) despite record-high prices (LME copper rose ~40–42% in 2025). High prices reduced refined copper imports but boosted domestic smelting and concentrate imports.
China imported a record 30.31 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in 2025 (+7.9% y/y), while unwrought/refined copper imports fell to 5.32 million tons (lowest since 2020, -6.4% y/y).11
Structure of Consumption and Major End-Use Sectors
According to Mordor Intelligence (2025 data):
Sector
Share in 2025
Projected CAGR (2026–2031)
Key Drivers
Electrical & Electronics
37.85%
4.05%
Data centers (AI), telecom, consumer electronics, power infrastructure
Automotive & Heavy Equipment
Growing
6.59% (fastest)
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), charging stations
Construction
Significant
Moderate
UHV lines, infrastructure (offset by real estate slowdown)
Industrial Automation
Rising
High
Smart factories, machinery
Main Demand Drivers:
• Power Infrastructure & Renewables: Power sector (especially UHV transmission) accounts for a large portion of growth. China plans massive investments in ultra-high-voltage (UHV) lines (e.g., USD 89 billion in related projects). Each major UHV line can consume thousands of tons of copper. Renewables (wind/solar) and grid modernization are copper-intensive.
• Electric Vehicles (NEVs): Each NEV uses significantly more copper (~3–4× a traditional car; estimates of 50–70+ kg per vehicle) plus charging infrastructure. China dominates global NEV production.
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• AI Data Centers: Explosive growth — large facilities can require 40,000–50,000 tons of copper each for power distribution, cooling, and cabling. China’s data center buildout supports AI ambitions, with energy consumption potentially tripling by 2035, adding substantial copper demand.
• Secondary (Recycled) Copper: Growing rapidly and now a key part of supply (~40% in some smelting contexts). Imports of copper scrap rose modestly in 2025.
The traditional real estate and construction sector weakened due to the property crisis, but this has been largely offset by “green” and high-tech sectors (new energy, EVs, data centers, and power grids). The share of copper used in NEVs, wind/solar, and data centers rose sharply from ~6.8% in 2021 to 19.4% recently.12
Supply and Trade
• Refined Copper Production: Strongly up in 2025 thanks to expanded smelting capacity.
• Imports: Shift toward raw materials (concentrates/ore at record levels) and away from refined copper due to high prices and domestic processing push. Copper scrap imports also increased, with Japan and Thailand among top suppliers.
Major players
State-owned or large firms like Jiangxi Copper, Zijin Mining, etc.
Outlook and Risks for 2026+
• Positive factors:
Strong policy support for energy transition, EVs, AI infrastructure, and grid upgrades (including multi-trillion RMB investments). Secondary copper and domestic refining help mitigate concentrate shortages.
• Risks:
Elevated prices dampening short-term demand, tighter environmental regulations, geopolitical tensions/tariffs, and slower traditional construction. China’s share of global consumption may gradually decline (from ~57–60% toward ~52% by 2031), but absolute volumes continue rising.18
• Global context: Analysts expect structural deficits in the copper market (e.g., 150,000–330,000 tons in 2026 per some forecasts), driven by underinvestment in mining and surging electrification/AI demand. China’s copper market is transitioning from reliance on real estate to being powered by electrification, digitalization, and the green transition. If you need deeper dives (e.g., monthly breakdowns, company-specific data, full reports, or focus on a specific sector like EVs or data centers), let me know!